Decision Matrix Headwind Scan
Expand a hard choice beyond dominant variables and expose future consequences
- Difficulty
- Easy
- Time to result
- ~days to results
- Steps
- 6
- Confidence
- 99%
The Decision Matrix Headwind Scan widens a difficult choice beyond the two or three factors currently dominating attention. Begin by naming those obvious variables, then force the analysis to include at least ten and potentially twenty relevant considerations. Compare the options across the full list so that individually smaller factors can accumulate rather than disappear beneath the loudest concern. The matrix may change the preferred option, but Kurt says its more important function is preparation: the expanded list reveals future headwinds and consequences a strategic planner should have considered before they arrive. For a college, marriage, or business decision, the output is therefore both a more balanced choice and a set of anticipated conditions with responses already considered. It turns so-called unintended consequences into risks that were consciously scanned.
Origin
Kurt identified the decision matrix from his book Sawyer Think as a life-changing exercise for major personal and business choices.
Core principles
- 01Two or three visible variables can dominate a difficult choice
- 02A wider factor set changes the weight of the obvious concerns
- 03Small considerations compound into a different overall picture
- 04Future headwinds should be anticipated rather than labelled unintended
- 05Preparation can be more valuable than changing the final choice
How to run it
- 1
Frame the choice
Write the decision in a form that makes the candidate options explicit. Define what a successful outcome would mean.
Pro tip Keep the options distinct enough to compare.
Watch out A vague decision statement produces vague criteria.
- 2
Capture the dominant variables
List the two or three considerations consuming most of your attention. Treat them as starting inputs rather than the complete decision.
Pro tip Name why each factor feels decisive.
Watch out Salience does not prove that a factor deserves most of the weight.
- 3
Expand to ten or more
Add practical, relational, financial, operational, and long-term variables until the matrix contains at least ten. Include factors that seem individually small.
Pro tip Ask what could matter one year after the decision, not only on decision day.
Watch out Stopping when the obvious list is exhausted defeats the exercise.
- 4
Compare the full pattern
Assess every option against every variable and look at the cumulative picture. Notice when the smaller factors together alter the apparent importance of the original three.
Pro tip Review the pattern before assigning a final preference.
Watch out Do not manipulate the assessment to preserve a preferred answer.
- 5
Scan for headwinds
Use weak scores and uncertain factors to identify conditions that could cause trouble later. Ask what you would do if each one appeared.
Pro tip Convert each material concern into a trigger and response.
Watch out Calling a foreseeable consequence unintended is not preparation.
- 6
Choose and prepare
Make the decision using the complete comparison, then retain the headwind responses. The matrix remains useful even when it confirms the original choice.
Pro tip Review the matrix when a predicted condition changes.
Watch out Do not discard the risk work once the option is selected.
In the wild
Kurt uses college choice as an example of a decision that may initially be dominated by two or three concerns. Adding at least ten factors allows another fifteen smaller considerations to accumulate and potentially change the apparent importance of the original concerns.
→ The chooser reaches a broader comparison and anticipates problems that might otherwise appear later as surprises.
Common mistakes
Stopping at three variables
The concerns that dominate attention may crowd out a larger set of factors that collectively matter more.
Using the matrix only to rank
Its strategic value also lies in identifying and preparing for future headwinds.
Calling risks unintended
Kurt argues that a good strategic planner should think through what could happen before it arrives.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for consequential choices with several plausible options and effects that will unfold over time.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for trivial, easily reversible decisions where analysis would cost more than a quick test.
From the transcript
“This decision makes you makes you come up with at least a total of 10, maybe even 20.”
“really the value of the decision matrix is it may change your decision but more importantly it'll prepare you to think about all the other…”
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