Chaos Opportunity Pivot
Run toward market disorder and reposition for the next opportunity
- Difficulty
- Advanced
- Time to result
- ~months to results
- Steps
- 5
- Confidence
- 93%
Ben Reinberg treats market chaos as a strategic signal rather than a reason to withdraw. The method begins by looking at where the market is going, which business lines may benefit, and what competitors are leaving behind. It then separates preparation from acquisition: Alliance bought no deals in 2023 because the bid-ask gap was too wide, while anticipating better buying opportunities later. Financing also changes with the environment. When rates are high, an operator can use more equity or all cash, obtain a lower purchase price, and add debt later if rates improve. The mechanism is patience plus deliberate repositioning: preserve optionality, build capacity, and act when pricing and opportunity align.
Origin
Reinberg said Alliance used this approach to enter medical-office investing during a recession and later prepared a multifamily division as market stress increased.
Core principles
- 01Market chaos creates openings for patient operators
- 02A downturn is a prompt to reassess direction rather than retreat
- 03Capital structure should adapt to financing conditions
- 04Patience preserves the ability to buy when pricing improves
How to run it
- 1
Read the disorder
Identify the uncertainty, financing pressure, and behavior changes creating the market disruption.
Pro tip Listen to investors, colleagues, lenders, and operators for repeated signs of stress.
Watch out Do not assume chaos alone makes every available deal attractive.
- 2
Choose the pivot
Ask where the market is going and which asset class or line of business offers a defensible opening.
Pro tip Use the capabilities already present in the organization when selecting an adjacent opportunity.
Watch out Avoid entering a field solely because competitors are struggling.
- 3
Wait for viable pricing
Compare bids, asks, rates, and expected values. Preserve capital if the gap does not support a sound acquisition.
Pro tip Treat a year without purchases as acceptable when pricing is not rational.
Watch out Activity is not a substitute for disciplined underwriting.
- 4
Adapt the capital stack
Use more equity or cash when debt is expensive, then consider adding financing after rates adjust.
Pro tip A stronger equity position can also support negotiation certainty.
Watch out Future refinancing and value recovery are possibilities, not guarantees.
- 5
Build before the window
Recruit, invest in technology, improve marketing, and prepare operational capacity before attractive deals arrive.
Pro tip Make readiness part of the downturn strategy rather than waiting for obvious recovery.
Watch out Expansion still requires enough resources to survive the cycle.
In the wild
During a recession roughly 20 years earlier, Reinberg said Alliance sat down with investors and colleagues to ask where the market was going. The firm pivoted into medical-office investing and became a leader in the asset class.
→ The recession-era pivot established a major line of business for Alliance.
Alliance bought no deals in 2023 because Reinberg considered the gap between bids and asking prices too wide. The firm waited while preparing for buying opportunities in the following years.
→ Capital remained available for a market Reinberg expected to offer better pricing.
Common mistakes
Running away from disorder
Retreating automatically can hide the opportunities created when competitors and capital leave a market.
Forcing a deal
Buying despite an uneconomic bid-ask gap sacrifices the patience that makes the approach work.
Keeping the old capital stack
Using the same leverage assumptions after rates rise can make an otherwise promising acquisition fragile.
Is it for you?
Best for
It is best for patient entrepreneurs and investors with enough resources to reposition during a downturn.
Not ideal for
It is not ideal for operators without the reserves or risk capacity to withstand a prolonged market cycle.
From the transcript
“when you have a market that has this kind of chaos showe I encourage people is don't run away from it run towards it and…”
“we're going to wait we're going to be patient”
“let's just pay all cash make it all equity and we'll put debt on it later on when rates start adjusting”
From the episode
Trailblazing Wealth ft. Visionary Ben Reinberg
Visionary Ben Reinberg