Why the Next Distress Cycle May Produce More Than Foreclosures
Reinberg predicts a mixture of Chapter 11 reorganizations, lender workouts, note sales, and foreclosures rather than a single path for troubled commercial properties. He argues that non-recourse borrowing preserves negotiating leverage if a loan is sold or a property needs restructuring.
- Sponsors may negotiate restructurings with lenders
- Chapter 11 can pause and reorganize a troubled capital structure
- Banks may move covenant breaches into workout departments
- Loan sales can create a new counterparty for negotiations
- Reinberg views non-recourse terms as negotiation protection
“you're going to see a lot of workouts where you know the covenants don't make sense the debt service coverage can't be met”
“you're going to see foreclosures you're going to see a lot of workouts you're going to see a lot of note sales and you're going…”